When British economist Jim O’Neill coined the term BRIC in 2001, predicting the ascent of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, he could not have anticipated that the analysis would evolve into a full-blown geopolitical and institutional framework two decades later.
O’Neill accurately identified the rise of the four nations, implicitly warning the G7 that shifts in the global economic power could curb Western dominance within 50 years.
In hindsight, O’Neill’s prediction was not merely speculative but prescient. BRIC countries have methodically built their global influence, transforming themselves into giants both politically and economically.
Expanded to 10 countries - including Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates - the intergovernmental organization now known as BRICS has challenged post-Cold War superpowers and alliances led by the United States and its Western allies.
2008 financial crisis fuels rise of BRICS
The 2008 global financial crisis, which exposed cracks within Western economic systems, was a significant moment for BRICS.
Russia capitalized on Western retrenchment by convening the first BRICS summit in 2009, which advocated for a wider international order with reduced dependence on American-led financial and political institutions. While framed as an alliance, each country used the summit to advance its own objectives - many of which were curbed by Western-dominated systems.
China’s approach to BRICS under President Xi Jinping’s leadership appears to be particularly systematic and ideologically coherent. Beijing has articulated a threefold strategy.
First, China sees the Global South as both a constituency and a protective buffer, positioning Beijing as the leading advocate for developing countries. Through BRICS, Xi has sought to challenge the dominance of Western liberal democracy by advancing models focused on centralized governance and political stability.
Second, China has increasingly linked economic cooperation to security. Xi’s recent summit speeches advocated for BRICS cooperation to resist sanctions and foreign interference, indirectly referencing US policies toward Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Third, China has taken a more aggressive approach to challenging American financial dominance by promoting alternative standards and infrastructure. This includes globalizing the digital yuan and expanding Chinese payment systems to protect trade from possible US sanctions.
Growing interest from 30 countries
The geopolitical importance of BRICS grew significantly at the 2023 Johannesburg summit, marking its shift to a more established bloc. The addition of new members like the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Iran - along with interest from another 30 countries - signaled the growing appetite among middle and regional powers for alternatives to Western-led institutions.
China’s stewardship of the Shanghai-based New Development Bank has fueled this momentum with development financing that promises to be more flexible and politically neutral than Western-led options. Indonesia’s membership expanded the reach of BRICS into southeast Asia, furthering its goal of becoming a truly trans-regional platform.
In addition to financial cooperation, BRICS has started to build alternative economic infrastructure, including payment systems designed to compete with Western-dominated ones such as SWIFT. This shift has heightened concerns in Washington that BRICS is not just an economic alliance but a challenger to existing systems.
Xi’s strategy is important as it establishes BRICS as a security-focused alliance, drawing comparisons to NATO’s role in representing Western power.
The US strategic focus on Greenland, along with growing American involvement in Latin America, reflects a broader effort to counterbalance the growing influence of BRICS. US interventions and sanctions on Venezuela and Iran can be seen as defensive measures to prevent BRICS from growing more powerful.
Consequences of NATO fissures and tariffs
At the same time, relations among NATO members and Western allies are publicly strained. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that a US attack on Greenland - a Danish territory - would effectively mean the end of the alliance which is built on the premise of collective defense.
China has exploited these fissures through economic diplomacy framed as “win-win cooperation,” particularly in response to the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policies. Beijing’s outreach to Canada after the US levied heavy tariffs on Chinese goods illustrates this strategy, as do high-level diplomatic engagements involving figures such as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and European leaders.
While Canada remains a core member of the G7 and NATO, its diplomatic tilt toward Beijing has triggered unease among US allies who champion unilateralism. NATO members such as Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey have also shown growing interest in BRICS as they seek to diversify their options.
Beijing expands through infrastructure
Whether the future international order will be shaped primarily by NATO or BRICS remains unknown, but current trends indicate that Western unity is gradually eroding as China-centered alliances steadily expand. With a focus on unilateral policies and transactional alliances, Washington risks alienating partners with diverging interests.
In contrast, Beijing’s soft power approach - rooted in infrastructural investment, development finance, and institutional inclusion - has expanded its partnerships without imposing rigid ideological demands.
Notably, BRICS has facilitated pragmatic cooperation even among historically contentious countries: for example between China and India after their leaders met at the 2024 BRICS summit.
China is also deeply entrenched in Africa and Latin America, where it now dominates major development and resource projects. With approximately 45 percent of the global population and over one-third of global GDP, BRICS now surpasses the G7 on key indicators with member states owning substantial resources, including hydrocarbons and rare earth elements.
In light of this, O’Neill’s original theory has come to fruition: a changing world order that signals the rise of a multipolar system, driven by the Global South.
Mahdi Faraj is Rudaw correspondent in Beijing.