ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The Iraqi government will be under pressure to clamp down on Iran-linked militia groups, a veteran US diplomat told Rudaw on Sunday. These groups carried out hundreds of missile and drone attacks against the Kurdistan Region during the latest conflict between the US, Israel and Iran.
“I think the pressure is going to be on Baghdad, on the government, to really clamp down on these activities, and to insist to the Iranians that they cease targeting Iraqi Kurdistan,” Barbara A. Leaf, a US diplomat who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs under former US President Joe Biden from 2022 to 2025, told Rudaw's Shahyan Tahsin.
Over 700 missile and drone attacks were carried out against the Kurdistan Region during the conflict, which lasted for nearly 40 days before a Pakistani-mediated ceasefire took effect last Wednesday. Most of the attacks were carried out by Iran-backed militia groups based in Iraq.
The veteran diplomat also touched on various issues, including the failed US-Iran talks in Islamabad.
“Right now, it's a bit of a standoff, and there will be a lot of public posturing by both sides, so there will be threats by both sides. But I think you can count on the fact that there is a large body of public opinion among many different governments in Asia, in Europe, in the Middle East, also in Southwest Asia, like Pakistan, who are very strongly motivated to get these parties back to the table,” she said.
“But unfortunately, it's going to be a very tense couple of weeks, or the rest of this two-week period, to see which way this goes. And unfortunately, as we've seen, the Iraqi militias have been really outrageous in targeting Iraqi Kurdistan, fellow Iraqis, and civilian structures. And Iran has been the same way,” she added.
Conflicting interpretations over Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire present a significant risk of escalation, Leaf told Rudaw. While Iran insists Lebanon is part of the truce, the US and Israel disagree, creating a volatile flashpoint that could trigger further military strikes.
US-Iran negotiations will eventually resume, Leaf told Rudaw. Emphasizing that military force alone cannot resolve disputes over the Strait of Hormuz or Iran’s nuclear program, Leaf stressed the necessity of returning to the negotiating table to secure diplomatic agreements and intrusive inspections. She concluded the interview by stating that the region will witness “heightened tensions” and that there’s a possibility of “resumption of some limited military action.”
Following is the full transcript of the interview with Leaf:
Rudaw: I would like to begin by asking about President Donald Trump’s recent post. Do his words and threats indicate a possible resumption of war? How do you interpret them?
Barbara A. Leaf: For the moment, it's unclear, but it looks like both sides are going to hold to the ceasefire in terms of not firing on each other. But there's no question that this is an escalation. A non-kinetic escalation, if you will, by the United States, and we'll have to see how Iran meets it, as it surely will.
Will President Trump escalate the conflict again?
Well, as always, President Trump uses very colorful and often very militaristic terminology. Lock and Load would suggest that he is preparing to order US troops to do some sort of incursion or assault or what-have-you. I think it's more of a warning because he is gathering more forces into the region. But I think it's also possible that Iran will take the issue of the strait being closed by the US, or traffic being intercepted, as a reason to do something on its own side. And It's actually pretty strange to me that the US is going to restrict all ships going and coming when they really should just restrict Iranian vessels or vessels carrying Iranian crude.
Trump also said that other countries would support the US on this issue. Do you think other countries, especially the United Kingdom, would assist the US in enforcing a blockade?
No other Navy in the world comes close to the US Navy in terms of its capacity, its firepower, its size, and it's the complexity of the weapons that it brings to the fight. So I'm not sure that any other navy is necessary to do what the President is proposing, which is to construct a blockade on the Sea of Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz.
The management of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear enrichment issue remain two major points of disagreement between the US and Iran, with both sides holding very different positions. In your view, is there any realistic chance they could move closer on either issue - particularly within this 10-day window?
Well, obviously this kind of escalation will make that less likely, but it's clear that the mediators, Pakistan principally, but also assisted by Turkey, are very motivated to try to bring the two parties back to the table. But I'm not certain that's going to happen now with the blockade. I don't expect the Iranians to be moved by the blockade in a positive sense, and in fact further restricting any flow of oil to the energy markets is actually going to cause more immediate pain to Asia, to Europe, and eventually to the US.
If no agreement is reached, do you think hostilities will resume once the 14-day ceasefire expires?
Well, that is certainly the risk. The big point of volatility to all of this, well, there's several, but one of the first ones that we saw was this question of whether Lebanon was considered part of the ceasefire theater, and you heard two different versions of that on either side - Iran insisting that that had been agreed to include Lebanon, US and Israel saying it was not. But leaving that aside, the risk is back with just one side or another doing a military strike, which will precipitate escalation immediately. And unfortunately, well, my greatest fear is that the Gulf countries will once again be the target of such attacks by Iran. And of course, Iraq, and Iraqi Kurdistan in particular, has been a target, a constant target, in these six weeks by the Iranian side as well as by Iraq's own Iranian affiliated militias.
A few days ago, you told Rudaw that the US should increase pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In your view, what form should that pressure take? How can Washington effectively apply pressure on Tehran?
Well, I could suggest to you what I think the US administration has in mind, and then I can suggest to you what I think actually would work, or which has a better chance of working.
The administration is first trying to really apply a greater degree of economic pressure on Iran through blockading the Strait of Hormuz. As I said, it would make a lot more sense to simply block Iranian vessels and Iranian crude, and also take back those sanctions waivers on purchasing of Iranian crude overseas. All of that would make some sense. But if you're talking about an immediate kind of pressure to get back to the negotiating table, that's not likely to deliver Iran. Iran has sustained a kind of terrible resilience, terrible for its people, for years under sweeping sanctions regimens. So I don't think this will have a dispositive effect. The administration is also thinking through a variety of military pressures. Again, I don't think that is what will drive Iran back to the negotiating table. Political pressure from a large community, at a large international community, has to be applied on Iran to return to the negotiating table, and to make a good set of arrangements for what virtually everyone agrees is a priority, which is reopening the Strait of Hormuz with no conditions, no management by anyone, but to let all international commerce flow. If the US is clever about it, putting pressure on Iran to do that, to go back to negotiations, and to come up with an unconstrained approach to the Strait of Hormuz, that would be a win.
Given that any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has serious consequences for the region and the global economy, why does the US appear to be taking the lead in responding? Which other countries should be involved in addressing this issue, and in what way?
There are different ways for different collectives of countries or countries themselves to get involved. Mostly, that is through political pressure, either at the UN or bilaterally or within the context of other organizations. You have heard the UAE speak out very clearly on this point, and other Gulf countries speak out very clearly, and so have the Europeans, so has the foreign minister of Singapore, gave very clear direction as to what they want. But as I said, no other navy has the size or heft power that the US navy has, so the idea of trying to force it militarily is not an attractive proposition for other countries. Moreover, it's not a question of forcing the Strait open one time. You would have to maintain a very sizable presence there, and be willing to take a very high risk of attacks while your forces are there. And in any case, commercial insurance companies, maritime insurance companies, and shippers themselves are not going to take that risk when they feel there is a possibility that Iranian drone, either underwater or by air, or a limpet mine, or a ballistic missile, could take out a ship.
What should we expect at this point? Following President Trump’s remarks and Iran’s refusal to US conditions, do you think the ceasefire will hold, or is a return to war more likely?
Well, right now, it's a bit of a standoff, and there will be a lot of public posturing by both sides, so there will be threats by both sides. But I think you can count on the fact that there is a large body of public opinion among many different governments in Asia, in Europe, in the Middle East, also in Southwest Asia, like Pakistan, who are very strongly motivated to get these parties back to the table.
But unfortunately, it's going to be a very tense couple of weeks, or the rest of this two-week period, to see which way this goes. And unfortunately, as we've seen, the Iraqi militias have been really outrageous in targeting Iraqi Kurdistan, fellow Iraqis, and civilian structures. And Iran has been the same way.
So I think the pressure is going to be on Baghdad, on the government, to really clamp down on these activities, and to insist to the Iranians that they cease targeting Iraqi Kurdistan.
Finally, in your opinion, will negotiations between the United States and Iran resume? If so, how might they proceed, and are there likely to be efforts to restart them within the next 10 days of the truce?
Yes, I think they will. The question is, what will happen between today and that next cycle of negotiations? Look, these issues, whether it's the nuclear program or the Strait of Hormuz, cannot be finished by military means alone.
The military weapons, the use of the military, can only get you so far. But you need negotiations to wrap all of this off, and to commit Tehran to certain modes of behavior, and to have an intrusive inspection regime when it comes to the nuclear program. So they absolutely must return to the negotiating table at some point.
Do you think the ceasefire will be extended to pave the way for an agreement?
It is always possible, but I think we'll go through a period of very heightened tensions here, possibly a resumption of some limited military action. But the risk when you escalate is that you lose control of escalation. So let's hope that that is not the case.
