On Sunday, while Iranian missiles were still falling near the Dimona nuclear research center in Israel, Donald Trump reached for his phone. He issued a high-stakes ultimatum via Truth Social: "If Iran does not fully and without threat open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this moment, the United States of America will strike and destroy their power plants, starting with the largest of them."
However, before the 48-hour clock expired, the U.S. President shifted his stance. In a follow-up post, Trump announced that very good and productive conversations had taken place to resolve the conflict. Consequently, he instructed the Department of War to halt all planned kinetic strikes against Iranian electrical and energy infrastructure for a five-day negotiation window.
Senior Iranian officials, however, were quick to dismiss the claim of a diplomatic breakthrough. In statements carried by regional media, Tehran denied being in direct negotiations with Washington, characterizing the President’s remarks as a "psychological operation" intended to manipulate global financial markets.
Despite the declared pause, the ground reality remains volatile. On Tuesday morning, reports emerged of targeted strikes against a gas pipeline feeding the Khorramshahr power plant, a gas administration building, and the Isfahan gas pressure control station. This raises a critical question: what kind of attack can Iran’s electricity system actually withstand, and how would a collapse of the power sector impact the daily lives of 88 million people?
A system in constant crisis
Iran’s electricity infrastructure is currently teetering on the edge of failure due to decades of internal mismanagement and underinvestment. While the Iranian Ministry of Energy lists a nominal installed capacity of over 92,000 megawatts (MW), analysts warn this figure is largely theoretical.
According to a June 2025 analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the actual deliverable capacity is closer to 62,000 MW. The report identifies a "widening gap" caused by:
Aging Infrastructure: The average efficiency of Iran's thermal plants is below 33%, with the Iranian Parliament Research Center noting some newer plants struggle to reach 30% efficiency - far below the global combined-cycle standard of 55-60%.
Transmission Losses: Approximately 40% of natural gas and electricity is wasted during production and transmission.
The economic toll is already staggering. Data from the Iran Chamber of Commerce Research Center estimates that existing power outages cause 18,000 trillion Rials ($12.2 million) in daily economic losses, with 51% of those losses hitting the industrial sector. In 2024, steel and cement hubs in Isfahan, Yazd, and Khuzestan saw their power supply slashed to nearly half of their 1,000 MW requirement during peak summer months.
